Avoiding the Traffic Jam

Using the DICE model in Predicting the Success or Failure of a Change Initiative
 
 
 
 

In my way to office every morning, there is always this little thinking exercise that I have to go through – which route I must take to avoid Jakarta’s horrible traffic jam.

I have my favorite route surely, but it has not always been a great choice on several occasions.  I need to change and drive away from my favorite route and taking another route sometimes when the traffic has become too unbearable.  But taking another route is not an easy option to choose, as I might just end up driving to a route with an even heavier traffic.

The traffic ahead doesn't look good this morning,  should I change my route and make a right turn in the intersection ahead ?

The route change in the avoiding-traffic-jam case might be similar in a bigger perspective, to the change in a journey that project team or organization goes through. From all the wisdom of the guru in the project/organization management, it has been said that change is almost always inevitable for any organization and successfully managing change is a part of the day-to-day effort in managing a successful project and/or organization. 

But in heading towards a change initiative, how can we ensure that a change initiative can be implemented successfully or at least how can we predict that certain change initiative can be implemented successfully while other can not - is there a way to measure this?

DICE – Predicting the Successful Change Project

In the article by Harold L. Sirkin, Perry Keenan, and Alan Jackson, The Hard Side of Change Management, they stated that while looking at the soft aspect of a change initiative is important, it is not sufficient.  Aspects such as culture, leadership and motivation are true indeed an important part of the change process.  But, while looking after the soft aspects, we need to be also looking after the hard aspect of change.  Such hard aspect are characterized by, first they are measurable, second their importance can be communicated easily, and third they can be influenced quickly.

These characters can be identified into four hard aspects: Duration, performance Integrity, Commitment, and additional Effort required.  To describe these four factors further:

D. The duration of time until the change is completed. If it is a long change program, then the duration between each of the milestones can be monitored.

I. The project team’s performance integrity, the ability to complete the change, that depends on the members skills and traits related to the change requirement.

C. Commitment, from top management and also from employee.

E. the additional effort, beyond the usual work, that is required by the change initiative.

The DICE factor of a certain change initiative can then be scored, depending on the result it can be then categorized into a win zone, worry zone or woe zone.

If the change initiatives are within the worry zone or woe zone, we can then examined the critical factors and take the required steps to steer the change initiative into a win zone.

So after all this, coming back the traffic ahead, should I then make a right turn?

D - It will only take me 5-10 minutes longer than my normal route ….

I - I have my GPS and familiar with the route, so no chance in getting lost and circling around ….

C - My wife sitting next to me in the car said that she is OK with it ….

E - As I say, it only took 5-10 minutes more driving effort than my usual route, fine by me ….

All seems good with our DICE in avoiding the traffic jam ahead, we are definitely in a win zone, let’s make a right turn then!

Reference:

• The Hard Side of Change Management, Harvard Business Review, http://www.il-inc.com/pdf/HBR%20The%20Hard%20Side%20of%20Change%20Management.PDF
• Photos taken from http://indonesia-cars.com 

LIE TO ME

Communication through Facial Expression

Have you ever watched the TV Series LIE TO ME?

LIE TO ME is a TV series inspired by the scientific discoveries of a real-life psychologist who can read clues embedded in the human face, body and voice to expose the truth and lies in criminal investigations.

DR. Cal Lightman (Tim Roth) is the world's leading deception expert. By analyzing facial expressions and involuntary body language, he can read feelings ranging from hidden resentment to sexual attraction to jealousy.

I was really intrigued by the idea of – if I as a Project Manager could only have some parts of  Dr. Lightman skill, it would really be helping my team to move forward.

PMBOK includes communication as one of the Project Management Knowledge area – Project Communications Management. And under Project Communication Management tools and techniques state that the art of communication is including ‘Presentation techniques.  Body Language and design of visual aids.

Now that I have found my excuse to bring up a more psychological stuff in what was supposed to be my project management site (thanks to PMBOK :D), shall we go further?


Body Language – Facial Expression

Facial coding is not an exact science, and is only now starting to find business applications. It dates back to the 1960s when San Francisco psychologist Paul Ekman found that expressions are learned early and are the same in Japan and Argentina as they are in the USA.

Paul Ekman, is also the expert behind all the episodes of LIE TO ME.

According to Ekman, when people deliberately try to conceal their emotions (or unconsciously repress their emotions), a very brief–1/15 to 1/25 of a second– facial expression often occurs, invisible to nearly everyone except surely those that are skillfully trained to look at these micro expressions.

Despite efforts to conceal any sign of emotion that is felt, leakage may occur in very small hard to recognize fragments of expression. These tiny changes also can occur when an emotion is just beginning, often before the person knows they are about to act emotionally.

On his article in USAtoday, It’s Written All over Their Faces, Del Jones a facial coding expert, bring up several of his observation on some well known executives, based on their facial expression.

Quoting on his observation:

• Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos was evenly split with 51% positive and 49% negative expressions. He had 20% true smiles with laughter, but they were combined with the lowering and knitting of his eyebrows and the wrinkling of his nose. Net effect: "Enjoyment tinged with disgust and negativity," Hill says

• Microsoft Chairman Gates was 73% positive. He was at ease, affable and low key, but displayed "small, weak social smiles, and touches of contempt.

• Berkshire Hathaway CEO Buffett scored 69% positive and was affable, assured and low-key. He also had many weak social smiles and "a fair amount of smiling while making ironic comments," Hill says.

• Dell CEO Michael Dell was 47% positive and "strikes me as chagrined and a little defiant." He managed some weak smiles, but they came in the vicinity of skepticism.

• Apple CEO Steve Jobs scored 48% positive and topped all CEOs examined for making no attempt to hide his emotions. Apple employees don't have to guess what this CEO is thinking. "Lots of emoting, enjoyment mingled with frustration," Hill says.

• News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch scored 83% negative. Lower chin raises show disgust, tightened lips anger. "He knits his eyebrows together very severely, a sign of anger, but also fear and sadness."

• Donald Trump was 84% negative, second to Ellison. Hill says he smiles while making negative comments that show disgust, contempt and skepticism.

If only all Project Managers are required to master these skills, don’t you think it will significantly increase the success rate of projects?

Reference:

• LIE TO ME TV Series Official Site, http://www.fox.com/lietome/
• Paul Ekman Site, http://www.paulekman.com/
• USAtoday, http://www.usatoday.com
• PMBOK, Project Management Institute, www.pmi.org